Signs of a slight decline in the epidemic appear in Ile-de-France


After nearly three weeks under the bell, would Ile-de-France see the end of the tunnel? The figures seem in any case rather encouraging since one of the benchmark indicators in monitoring the epidemic, the incidence rate, is declining.

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It went from 678 per 100,000 inhabitants the week of March 21 to 27, to 660 the week of March 28 to April 3, indicates the Covid Tracker site. However, it remains well above the alert threshold set at 250 by the authorities.

Evolution of the incidence rate in Ile-de-France (Covid Tracker screenshot)

More specifically, the incidence rate recorded over a sliding week was 687 on April 1, then 676 on April 2, 667 on April 3 and 664 on Sunday April 4, the latest figure available from Public Health France on its online software. Geodes.

A heterogeneous departmental situation

In the Ile-de-France departments, the situation is more heterogeneous. Over the periods from March 22 to 28 and from March 29 to April 4, the situation improved in Seine-Saint-Denis (the incidence rate rose from 812 to 800), in Essonne, (620 to 604 ), in Seine-et-Marne (734 to 711), in Yvelines (571 to 741) and Hauts-de-Seine (558 to 529).

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In Paris, the drop is minimal (609 to 608), while in Val-de-Marne (720 to 726) and Val-d’Oise (827 to 833), the numbers continue to climb, although moderate.

Another satisfactory indicator: the positivity rate of the tests also seems to drop: 9.33% on April 4 (sampling on D-3) while it was above 10.6% on March 20, date of the implementation of the tests. reinforced measures in 19 French departments including those of Ile-de-France.

On the wire

But now is not quite the time to celebrate, because other indicators continue to panic the counters. This is the case for the number of people hospitalized constantly increasing: 7,901 on Wednesday April 7, against 6,211 on March 20. Nationally, the milestone of 30,000 people hospitalized was exceeded on Tuesday, a record since November.

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The same goes for critical care patients, numbering 1,709 against 1,261 on March 20. Hospital pressure also remains high, with 148% of intensive care beds occupied by Covid patients.

The day after the new national restrictions, on April 1, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran announced on France Inter a peak of the epidemic in “Seven to ten days, if all goes well”, time it takes to feel the effects of these measures. It will be necessary to wait “Two more weeks to reach the peak of resuscitation at the end of April”, he added.



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